Android “will peak this year” as Windows Phone challenges Apple, IDC says
As forecasts go, this is a pretty big one: the International Data Corporation (IDC) has predicted that Windows Phone will overtake iOS by 2016 and that Android will have hit its peak by the end of this year.
The figures from IDC analysts revealed the 2012 market share and compare it with their predicted 2016 share.
According to IDC, by 2016 Microsoft will take 19.2% of the smartphone market, compared with Apple’s 19.0%. This is a minimal difference on the face of it, but given the 2012 figures (5.2% and 20.5%) it will represent a monumental increase for Windows Phone should the prediction pay off.
The figures come amidst a slightly gloomy overall prediction for the smartphone market, with IDC noting the link between the projected 10% decline in feature phone shipments and smartphone usage.
“Many owners of feature phones are holding on to their phones in light of uncertain job and economic prospects,” the report notes, adding: “Despite the decline in shipments, feature phones will still comprise 61.6% of the total mobile phone market this year”.
Elsewhere RIM is predicted to carry on with IDC stating that “there will continue to be a market for Blackberry OS-powered devices”, citing a continued demand in emerging markets for those who need affordable messaging systems.
Ramon Llamas, IDC senior research analyst, said that the competition between operating systems underpinned the market.
“What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements,” he added.
Who are the winners and losers in this report then? How much has the struggle of Symbian contributed to a potential narrowing of OS competition?
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